Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Selhurst Park Sun, 24 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Crystal Palace CRY
1 Winner 2
Arsenal ARS
Full Time Sun, 24 May 3:00 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Goal
|
Goal
Noni Madueke - 48'
Gabriel Jesus - 42'

CONTEXT

Arsenal secured a 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace in a tightly contested Premier League encounter that featured a first-half lead for the visitors. The away side opened the scoring before the break and defended their advantage through a second half where the hosts managed a single reply. Possession statistics highlighted Arsenal's control with 61 percent compared to 39 percent for Crystal Palace. No dismissals occurred to alter the flow of play. The stronger team on paper delivered the expected outcome with only minimal deviation from established patterns. Crystal Palace created opportunities but lacked the finishing touch to turn the contest around. Arsenal's organized approach ensured they collected all three points on the road.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Crystal Palace 1-2 Arsenal. Arsenal showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved consistent with market alignment for the winner.
  • xG expectations: No xG figures were available to evaluate pre-match expectations.
  • Event impact: Arsenal's first-half goal set the tone and they held firm after the hosts replied.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued so no distortion affected the contest.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Hallam

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Perry

1st Assistant

England

M. Wilkes

2nd Assistant

England

T. Nield

4th Official

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.42
Yellow cards / match 3.51
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.18
Crystal Palace O. Glasner
O. Glasner
VS
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.12
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brentford Rank: 88 D
Manchester City Rank: 98 L
Everton Rank: 88 D
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 L
Liverpool Rank: 91 L
West Ham United Rank: 83 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burnley Rank: 77 W
West Ham United Rank: 84 W
Fulham Rank: 86 W
Newcastle United Rank: 90 W
Manchester City Rank: 99 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 91 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 9 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Crystal Palace
0.19%
Draw
5.09%
Away Arsenal
94.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.56
98.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Crystal Palace
Arsenal
Power Score
70.56
98.48
League Position
15
1
Global Rank
30
3

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Crystal Palace — Opponent-weighted form score
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Crystal Palace Arsenal

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Crystal Palace

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arsenal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Crystal Palace ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arsenal
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Crystal Palace Arsenal
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Crystal Palace Arsenal
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Crystal Palace
Arsenal
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Crystal Palace
vs
Arsenal
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Crystal Palace Arsenal
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Crystal Palace 0.00
Arsenal 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Crystal Palace Arsenal
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Crystal Palace 0.00
Arsenal 0.00
Crystal Palace
Arsenal
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ARS had peak pressure around 23'.
  • ARS started the game with stronger pressure.
CRY Pressure ARS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ARS reached the top pressure at 23' (79.61).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Crystal Palace CRY Home
29 matches
Arsenal ARS Away
Match Record
3
Wins
17
9
Draws
9
17
Losses
3
Goals
33
Goals Scored
62
62
Goals Conceded
33
-29
Goal Difference
+29

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T15:01:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Henderson
England
1 D. Henderson
N. Clyne
England
17 N. Clyne
J. Lerma Solís
Colombia
8 J. Lerma Solís
C. Riad
Morocco
34 C. Riad
D. Muñoz Mejía
Substitution
Colombia
2 D. Muñoz Mejía
D. Kamada
Substitution
Japan
18 D. Kamada
W. Hughes
England
19 W. Hughes
R. Cardines
Trinidad and Tobago
59 R. Cardines
I. Sarr
Substitution
Senegal
7 I. Sarr
J. Devenny
Scotland
55 J. Devenny
J. Strand Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 J. Strand Larsen
Pitch
K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
Spain
13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
R. Calafiori
Substitution
Italy
33 R. Calafiori
P. Hincapié Reyna
Ecuador
5 P. Hincapié Reyna
C. Mosquera
Spain
3 C. Mosquera
C. Nørgaard
Substitution
Denmark
16 C. Nørgaard
M. Lewis-Skelly
England
49 M. Lewis-Skelly
M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
Spain
36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
G. Martinelli Silva
Brazil
11 G. Martinelli Silva
M. Dowman
Substitution
England
56 M. Dowman
C. Madueke
Substitution
England
20 C. Madueke
G. de Jesus
Substitution
Brazil
9 G. de Jesus

General Information

Date & Time :
May 24, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Selhurst Park
Capacity :
25456
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Farai Hallam
Marc Perry
Matthew Wilkes
Tom Nield

Statistics

Possession
CRY
41%
ARS
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 7
2 Shots 4
34 Dangerous attacks 53
39 Possession 61
3 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Goal Attempts 5
1 Injuries 0
26 Ball Safe 27
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 2
10 Successful Headers 13
12 Throwins 16
0 Hit Woodwork 1
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
7 Successful Dribbles 11
12 Dribble Attempts 18
7 Goal Kicks 5

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 7
79 Attacks 99

Possession

18 Successful Long Passes 14
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
46 Long Passes 37
79 Successful Passes Percentage 89
252 Successful Passes 455
317 Passes 512
7 Key Passes 11

Defensive

42 Duels Won 38
8 Interceptions 6
13 Tackles 7
5 Saves 2

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 5
18 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
9 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Farai Hallam

Starting XI ▼

1
Dean Henderson
Dean Henderson Goalkeeper
6.77
8
Jefferson Lerma
Jefferson Lerma Defender
6.7
17
Nathaniel Clyne
Nathaniel Clyne Defender
6.69
34
Chadi Riad
Chadi Riad Defender
6.6
2
Daniel Muñoz
Daniel Muñoz Midfielder
7.01
3
Tyrick Mitchell
Tyrick Mitchell
Defender46'
6.83
18
Daichi Kamada
Daichi Kamada Midfielder
6.81
20
Adam Wharton
Adam Wharton
Midfielder46'
6.98
19
Will Hughes
Will Hughes Midfielder
6.68
59
Rio Cardines
Rio Cardines Midfielder
6.8
7
Ismaïla Sarr
Ismaïla Sarr Attacker
6.88
10
Yéremy Pino
Yéremy Pino
Midfielder46'
6.84
22
Jørgen Strand Larsen
Jørgen Strand Larsen Attacker
6.75
14
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Attacker77'
6.75
55
Justin Devenny
Justin Devenny Attacker
6.48
Referee : Farai Hallam

Starting XI ▼

13
Kepa Arrizabalaga
Kepa Arrizabalaga Goalkeeper
7
3
Cristhian Mosquera
Cristhian Mosquera Defender
6.78
5
Piero Hincapié
Piero Hincapié Defender
6.88
16
Christian Nørgaard
Christian Nørgaard Defender
6.48
29
Kai Havertz
Kai Havertz
Attacker46'
6.77
33
Riccardo Calafiori
Riccardo Calafiori Defender
6.88
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães
Defender46'
7.21
11
Gabriel Martinelli
Gabriel Martinelli Midfielder
6.59
20
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke Midfielder
6.76
14
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres
Attacker83'
6.8
36
Martín Zubimendi
Martín Zubimendi Midfielder
7.01
49
Myles Lewis-Skelly
Myles Lewis-Skelly Midfielder
6.55
56
Max Dowman
Max Dowman Midfielder
6.96
23
Mikel Merino
Mikel Merino
Midfielder62'
6.9
9
Gabriel Jesus
Gabriel Jesus Attacker
6.58
10
Eberechi Eze
Eberechi Eze
Midfielder75'
7.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Yéremy Pino
Goal ruled out
90+1'
Event
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Header / 3rd Goal
89'
83'
Event
Viktor Gyökeres → Noni Madueke
10th Substitution
Event
Jean-Philippe Mateta → Jørgen Strand Larsen
9th Substitution
77'
75'
Event
Eberechi Eze → Gabriel Jesus
8th Substitution
74'
Event
Gabriel Jesus
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Evann Guessand → Adam Wharton
6th Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Mikel Merino → Max Dowman
7th Substitution
48'
Event
Noni Madueke
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Adam Wharton → Daichi Kamada
5th Substitution
46'
Event
Tyrick Mitchell → Daniel Muñoz
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Yéremy Pino → Ismaïla Sarr
4th Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Kai Havertz → Christian Nørgaard
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Gabriel Magalhães → Riccardo Calafiori
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Gabriel Jesus
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Yeremi Pino's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Yeremi Pino's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Yeremi Pino.
90
Attempt Attempt
Chadi Riad's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Gyokeres takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Jean Philippe Mateta with a header results in a goal.
84
Update Update
Viktor Gyokeres comes on for Noni Madueke.
80
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Merino takes a left-footed shot but misses.
79
Attempt Attempt
Kai Havertz takes a left-footed shot but misses.
77
Substitution Substitution
Jean Philippe Mateta is substituted off for Jorgen Strand Larsen.
75
Update Update
Eberechi Eze comes on for Gabriel Jesus.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Jesus receives a yellow card.
74
Attempt Attempt
Kai Havertz takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Rio Cardines takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Piero Hincapie takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
62
Update Update
Evann Guessand replaces Adam Wharton.
62
Attempt Attempt
Kai Havertz takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
61
Update Update
Mikel Merino replaces Max Dowman.
53
Attempt Attempt
Jorgen Strand Larsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Yeremi Pino attempts a header but misses the shot.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Noni Madueke scores, making it 2-0.
48
Attempt Attempt
Noni Madueke scores with a left-footed shot.
46
Update Update
Yeremi Pino comes on for Ismaila Sarr.
46
Update Update
Gabriel Dos Santos Magalhaes comes on for Riccardo Calafiori.
46
Update Update
Tyrick Mitchell replaces Daniel Munoz.
46
Update Update
Kai Havertz comes on for Christian Norgaard.
46
Update Update
Adam Wharton replaces Daichi Kamada.
42
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Jesus scores with a right-footed shot.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gabriel Jesus scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Gabriel Teodoro Martinelli Silva.
41
Attempt Attempt
Noni Madueke's left-footed shot is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Noni Madueke's left-footed shot is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Jesus attempts a header but misses the shot.
15
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Munoz takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Munoz takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Jesus takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Christian Norgaard takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Jesus takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
4
Attempt Attempt
Noni Madueke's left-footed shot is saved.

CONCLUSION

Arsenal's disciplined display away from home underlined their quality as they overcame Crystal Palace by 2-1. Leading at the interval allowed them to manage the game effectively despite late pressure from the home side. The visitors' superior possession and structure proved decisive in securing the points. Crystal Palace showed spirit in their response but could not breach the defense sufficiently. This outcome reinforces Arsenal's position among the leading sides while highlighting areas for the hosts to address in future fixtures. Both teams demonstrated commitment throughout a competitive ninety minutes that produced clear attacking moments and solid defensive work.

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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