Fulham vs Newcastle United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Craven Cottage Sun, 24 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Fulham FUL
2 Winner 0
Newcastle United NEW
Full Time Sun, 24 May 3:00 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Tom Cairney - 80'
Issa Diop - 20'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Fulham secured a 2-0 victory over Newcastle United at home with the halftime score at 1-0. Newcastle United entered as the stronger team yet Fulham claimed the win through effective play despite holding only 46 percent possession against the visitors 54 percent. No red cards were issued to either side during the contest. The outcome featured a significant deviation led by Fulham and proved consistent with market alignment. Efficiency remained in line with the match flow while xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Fulham capitalized on key moments to establish and maintain their lead through the second half without major disruptions.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fulham achieved a significant structural deviation by winning as the designated deviation team.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift stayed in line with overall match dynamics for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: The final result was market aligned according to pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations produced no measurable insights from the provided metrics.
  • Event impact: Event impact centered on Fulham scoring twice to secure the 2-0 win.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent with zero dismissals recorded for either team.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Jones

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Greenhalgh

1st Assistant

England

S. Massey

2nd Assistant

England

S. Allison

4th Official

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.42
Yellow cards / match 3.51
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.18
Fulham M. Saraiva Da Silva
M. Saraiva Da Silva
VS
Newcastle United E. Howe
E. Howe
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 D
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 90 L
Arsenal Rank: 97 L
Aston Villa Rank: 92 W
Brentford Rank: 88 D
Liverpool Rank: 91 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Ham United Rank: 83 W
Nottingham Forest Rank: 88 D
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 W
Arsenal Rank: 98 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 91 L
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 L
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 5 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fulham
37.37%
Draw
25.98%
Away Newcastle United
36.64%

Movement

Changes since opening
Fulham
-60.52%
Draw
+24.06%
Newcastle United
+36.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.5
89.6
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fulham
Newcastle United
Power Score
70.5
89.6
League Position
13
11
Global Rank
31
14

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fulham — Opponent-weighted form score
Newcastle United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fulham Newcastle United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fulham

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Newcastle United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fulham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Newcastle United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fulham Newcastle United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fulham Newcastle United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fulham
Newcastle United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fulham
vs
Newcastle United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fulham Newcastle United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fulham 0.00
Newcastle United 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fulham Newcastle United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fulham 0.00
Newcastle United 0.00
Fulham
Newcastle United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FUL had peak pressure around 31'.
  • NEW started the game with stronger pressure.
FUL Pressure NEW Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FUL reached the top pressure at 31' (77.15).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fulham FUL Home
39 matches
Newcastle United NEW Away
Match Record
16
Wins
18
5
Draws
5
18
Losses
16
Goals
46
Goals Scored
54
54
Goals Conceded
46
-8
Goal Difference
+8

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T15:01:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Leno
Germany
1 B. Leno
T. Castagne
Belgium
21 T. Castagne
I. Diop
Substitution
France
31 I. Diop
C. Bassey
Nigeria
3 C. Bassey
A. Robinson
United States
33 A. Robinson
S. Berge
Norway
16 S. Berge
A. Iwobi
Nigeria
17 A. Iwobi
O. Bobb
Substitution
Norway
14 O. Bobb
E. Smith Rowe
Substitution
England
32 E. Smith Rowe
Kevin
Substitution
Brazil
22 Kevin
Rodrigo Muniz
Substitution
Brazil
9 Rodrigo Muniz
Pitch
N. Pope
England
1 N. Pope
D. Burn
Substitution
England
33 D. Burn
S. Botman
Netherlands
4 S. Botman
M. Thiaw
Germany
12 M. Thiaw
L. Hall
England
3 L. Hall
J. Willock
England
28 J. Willock
B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
Substitution
Brazil
39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
J. Ramsey
England
41 J. Ramsey
N. Woltemade
Substitution
Germany
27 N. Woltemade
J. Murphy
Substitution
England
23 J. Murphy
W. Osula
Substitution
Denmark
18 W. Osula

General Information

Date & Time :
May 24, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Craven Cottage
Capacity :
25700
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Robert Jones
Nick Greenhalgh
Sian Massey
Samuel Allison

Statistics

Possession
FUL
49%
NEW
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 2
51 Dangerous attacks 43
46 Possession 54
6 Corners 6
7 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Injuries 0
6 Goal Attempts 2
40 Ball Safe 50
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
11 Successful Headers 17
77 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
15 Throwins 10
9 Goal Kicks 16
13 Dribble Attempts 11
1 Hit Woodwork 0
10 Successful Dribbles 3

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
108 Attacks 98

Possession

18 Successful Long Passes 21
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
415 Passes 490
341 Successful Passes 428
82 Successful Passes Percentage 87
16 Key Passes 5
46 Long Passes 48

Defensive

11 Interceptions 10
42 Duels Won 47
16 Tackles 14
2 Saves 4

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 2
13 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

13 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Robert Jones

Starting XI ▼

1
Bernd Leno
Bernd Leno Goalkeeper
6.8
3
Calvin Bassey
Calvin Bassey Defender
6.77
21
Timothy Castagne
Timothy Castagne Defender
6.83
31
Issa Diop
Issa Diop Defender
6.56
15
Jorge Cuenca
Jorge Cuenca
Defender86'
6.94
33
Antonee Robinson
Antonee Robinson Defender
6.85
14
Oscar Bobb
Oscar Bobb Midfielder
6.77
8
Harry Wilson
Harry Wilson
Attacker72'
7.11
16
Sander Berge
Sander Berge Midfielder
6.8
17
Alex Iwobi
Alex Iwobi Midfielder
7.01
22
Kevin
Kevin Midfielder
6.71
10
Tom Cairney
Tom Cairney
Midfielder60'
6.72
32
Emile Smith Rowe
Emile Smith Rowe Midfielder
6.74
24
Josh King
Josh King
Midfielder72'
6.62
9
Rodrigo Muniz
Rodrigo Muniz Attacker
6.65
7
Raúl Jiménez
Raúl Jiménez
Attacker72'
6.91
Referee : Robert Jones

Starting XI ▼

1
Nick Pope
Nick Pope Goalkeeper
6.88
3
Lewis Hall
Lewis Hall Defender
6.89
4
Sven Botman
Sven Botman Defender
6.97
12
Malick Thiaw
Malick Thiaw Defender
6.97
33
Dan Burn
Dan Burn Defender
6.69
37
Alex Murphy
Alex Murphy
Defender84'
6.6
23
Jacob Murphy
Jacob Murphy Midfielder
6.77
11
Harvey Barnes
Harvey Barnes
Midfielder46'
6.74
27
Nick Woltemade
Nick Woltemade Midfielder
6.74
62
Sean Neave
Sean Neave
Attacker77'
6.76
28
Joe Willock
Joe Willock Midfielder
6.68
39
Bruno Guimarães
Bruno Guimarães Midfielder
7.34
20
Anthony Elanga
Anthony Elanga
Attacker66'
6.61
41
Jacob Ramsey
Jacob Ramsey Midfielder
6.73
18
William Osula
William Osula Attacker
6.78
9
Yoane Wissa
Yoane Wissa
Attacker66'
6.51

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jorge Cuenca
4th Yellowcard
90+9'
Event
Antonee Robinson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Jorge Cuenca → Issa Diop
10th Substitution
86'
84'
Event
Alex Murphy → Dan Burn
9th Substitution
Event
Tom Cairney
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
80'
77'
Event
Sean Neave → Nick Woltemade
8th Substitution
Event
Josh King → Emile Smith Rowe
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Raúl Jiménez → Rodrigo Muniz
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Harry Wilson → Oscar Bobb 
7th Substitution
72'
70'
Event
Yoane Wissa
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Anthony Elanga → Bruno Guimarães
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Yoane Wissa → William Osula
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Bruno Guimarães
Handball / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Tom Cairney → Kevin
2nd Substitution
60'
46'
Event
Harvey Barnes → Jacob Murphy
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Issa Diop
Header / 1st Goal
20'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Harry Wilson takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alex Iwobi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Barnes heads the ball but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alex Iwobi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Raul Alonso Jimenez Rodriguez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antonee Robinson receives a yellow card.
88
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Hall takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
87
Update Update
Jorge Cuenca replaces Issa Diop.
84
Update Update
Alex Jacob Murphy comes on for Dan Burn.
83
Attempt Attempt
Joshua King takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Attempt Attempt
Harry Wilson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Tom Cairney takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
77
Update Update
Sean Neave replaces Nick Woltemade.
77
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Barnes takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Alex Iwobi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
74
Attempt Attempt
Tom Cairney takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Update Update
Joshua King replaces Emile Smith Rowe.
72
Update Update
Harry Wilson is on, and Oscar Bobb is off.
72
Update Update
Raul Alonso Jimenez Rodriguez comes on for Rodrigo Muniz Carvalho.
70
Attempt Attempt
Alex Iwobi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yoane Wissa receives a yellow card.
68
Attempt Attempt
Joseph Willock takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Yoane Wissa comes on for William Osula.
66
Update Update
Anthony Elanga replaces Bruno Guimaraes Rodriguez Moura.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bruno Guimaraes Rodriguez Moura receives a yellow card.
62
Attempt Attempt
Tom Cairney takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
60
Update Update
Tom Cairney replaces Kevin Santos Lopes de Macedo.
47
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Muniz Carvalho attempts a header but misses the shot.
46
Update Update
Harvey Barnes comes on for Jacob Murphy.
45
Attempt Attempt
Alex Iwobi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Joseph Willock takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Guimaraes Rodriguez Moura takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Muniz Carvalho's header is saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Muniz Carvalho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Emile Smith Rowe's left-footed shot is saved.
20
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Issa Diop, and he scores with a header!
19
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Issa Diop results in a goal with a header.
15
Attempt Attempt
Antonee Robinson takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Alex Iwobi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Muniz Carvalho takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Fulham completed a notable home win against the stronger Newcastle United side finishing 2-0 after leading 1-0 at the interval. Possession favored the visitors yet Fulham converted opportunities efficiently without the aid of numerical advantages from cards. The significant deviation by the home team aligned with market signals and maintained efficiency consistency throughout. Absence of xG figures limited quantitative review but the scoreline reflected clear event-driven outcomes. Both teams completed the fixture with full squads preserving standard competitive balance. This result underscores Fulham ability to overcome pre-match team strength perceptions through disciplined execution and timely scoring.

Fulham vs Newcastle United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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